ETFSetups
How it works

A system you can actually follow.

The whole point is to take the hardest part of trading, doing the right thing when money is moving, out of your hands. Here's the shape of how that works. We hold back the exact parameters for a reason we'll explain at the end.

01 · The foundation

Everything sits on the daily regime.

Before any signal fires, the system classifies the market's daily state, from confirmed-bearish through confirmed-bullish, with two intermediate states bridging the two. It only goes long once the trend has genuinely turned. Not on a one-day bounce. Not on hope.

A real turn unfolds over weeks: a sustained downtrend, a stretch of stabilization, then a confirmed bullish session. That confirmation is the moment everything else keys off. Members watch it live on the Sectors map for all eleven sectors.

02 · The filter

Most signals never reach you.

Two named setups fire on top of the regime, the Stage 2 Breakout, for entering as a stock turns into its advancing stage, and the First Pullback, for the first measured dip back to the base after it. Both run the same gauntlet of conviction screens before you ever see them:

Long-term trend

The name has to be in a genuine uptrend already. No bottom-fishing in falling stocks.

Regime depth

The prior weakness has to be real, deep enough to qualify as an actual reversal, not noise.

Entry quality

The entry bar has to open cleanly. If the move already ran away overnight, we pass.

Pullback character

A pullback has to be controlled, a dip toward the base, not a breakdown through it.

Roughly two of every three raw candidates fail at least one screen and get dropped. The rejection is the product. Most services sell you more opportunities; we sell you fewer, better ones.

03 · The exit ladder

The part you keep getting wrong, on autopilot.

This is where discipline usually dies. So it's the part we made fully mechanical. Every position moves through the same ladder, the same way, every time:

1
Disaster stop on entry. Volatility-scaled, so a quiet stock gets a tight leash and a noisy one gets room. Same dollar risk either way.
2
Stop ratchets to break-even. Once the trade proves itself, it can't turn into a loser. The pressure comes off.
3
Partial booked at the milestone. Half comes off at the first target. You're playing with house money on the rest.
4
The runner trails the high. The remaining half rides the trend as far as it'll go. This is how the big winners actually get captured, the part you keep cutting short.
5
Trend switch closes it. If the daily trend turns back against the position, it's gone at the next open. The thesis is dead; we don't argue with it.
The cadence

End of day. Never intraday.

Signals fire on the daily close. You place limit orders the next morning and step away. There's nothing to watch, nothing to react to, no fast decisions under pressure. If price breaks a stop intraday, nothing happens in a panic, the formal exit lands at the next session, on schedule.

It's built for someone with a job and a life, not six monitors.

A day in the system
  • Evening New signals post after the close. Two-minute review.
  • Next open Place limit orders at the levels already set.
  • All day The rules manage every open position. You work.
  • Close Glance at the book. Done.
How we validated it

Tested honestly. Held to the truth test.

Every rule earned its place under strict train / out-of-sample discipline: built on an earlier window, then proven on a later one it had never seen. A rule survived only if it improved both. Most candidates we tried didn't make it. That's the difference between a backtest that looks pretty and a system that holds up live.

Why we hold the recipe back

An edge on every blog is no edge.

We publish the output, the signals, the live levels, every closed trade, but not the exact thresholds inside the screens or the precise math of the exit ladder. Widely-published edges get arbitraged away. Keeping the parameters private protects the edge for the people paying for it. You can verify the results down to the last trade; that's what earns trust.

See it run on real money.

390 closed trades are on the public record, winners, losers, and the red months. Look before you decide.