Track Record
We run two portfolios, and they suit different people.
The ETF portfolio is the steady one. It's closed
80 trades and
78.80% of them won.
The moves are smaller, around +2.09% on a typical winner, but they land far more often.
The stock portfolio swings harder.
143 trades closed,
56.60% winners,
so you'll be wrong more often. But the winners are more than twice the size,
+4.78% on average,
and the best one ran +33.12%.
The losses run bigger too: across all 143 it works out
to +0.33% a trade.
It takes more work to pick well, and it pays more when you do.
The full record is public, losses and red months included.
Before going live we backtested the same rules over
501 trades
(65.70% winners,
+2.26% per trade).
Those are in the ledger too, and every row says which it is.
65.30%
Win rate · every closed trade
95% confidence: 61.9%–68.8%
on 724 trades
Total trades724
Winners473
Losers251
Avg per trade+1.74%
Best trade+47.26%
Worst trade-10.51%
Trend Reversal WR64.90% (n=482)
Pullback WR65.10% (n=235)
Oversold Bounce WR100.00% (n=7, too few to judge)
How the counting works. The numbers above treat every signal the same,
whether or not a portfolio slot was free to take it, which is exactly how the backtest
era was counted. The board we've actually held since going live has closed
95 trades on its own:
57.90% winners,
averaging +0.07% per trade.
Monthly Performance
[ 25 months ]
Click through to the ledger for any month.
What a 10%-per-position portfolio earned across
676 trades, held at most 30 at a time.
158 further signals fired with the portfolio already full and were passed over.
This adds the two portfolios together, and they're sized differently, so the number isn't one you could have traded. Open either on its own for a clean figure.
Sep 2024
+18.54% summed
+6.18% avg / trade
2W / 1L
· 66.70% · 3 trades
Oct 2024
-3.85% summed
-3.85% avg / trade
0W / 1L
· 0.00% · 1 trades
Nov 2024
no trades closed
Dec 2024
-1.76% summed
-1.76% avg / trade
0W / 1L
· 0.00% · 1 trades
Jan 2025
no trades closed
Feb 2025
+0.37% summed
+0.04% avg / trade
7W / 3L
· 70.00% · 10 trades
Mar 2025
-12.94% summed
-4.31% avg / trade
1W / 2L
· 33.30% · 3 trades
Apr 2025
-48.37% summed
-4.84% avg / trade
0W / 10L
· 0.00% · 10 trades
May 2025
+236.28% summed
+6.22% avg / trade
34W / 4L
· 89.50% · 38 trades
Jun 2025
+111.77% summed
+2.73% avg / trade
25W / 16L
· 61.00% · 41 trades
Jul 2025
+59.48% summed
+2.83% avg / trade
15W / 6L
· 71.40% · 21 trades
Aug 2025
+35.92% summed
+1.63% avg / trade
16W / 6L
· 72.70% · 22 trades
Sep 2025
+207.80% summed
+4.72% avg / trade
35W / 9L
· 79.50% · 44 trades
Oct 2025
+36.15% summed
+0.79% avg / trade
24W / 22L
· 52.20% · 46 trades
Nov 2025
-25.23% summed
-1.40% avg / trade
6W / 12L
· 33.30% · 18 trades
Dec 2025
+34.47% summed
+1.11% avg / trade
18W / 13L
· 58.10% · 31 trades
Jan 2026
+74.35% summed
+1.30% avg / trade
39W / 18L
· 68.40% · 57 trades
Feb 2026
+132.66% summed
+4.15% avg / trade
28W / 4L
· 87.50% · 32 trades
Mar 2026
-7.25% summed
-0.56% avg / trade
7W / 6L
· 53.80% · 13 trades
Apr 2026
+86.49% summed
+2.06% avg / trade
24W / 18L
· 57.10% · 42 trades
May 2026
+234.36% summed
+2.82% avg / trade
55W / 28L
· 66.30% · 83 trades
Jun 2026
+34.88% summed
+0.74% avg / trade
33W / 14L
· 70.20% · 47 trades
Jul 2026
+0.15% summed
0.00% avg / trade
50W / 21L
· 70.40% · 71 trades
Aug 2026
+82.42% summed
+1.40% avg / trade
40W / 19L
· 67.80% · 59 trades
Sep 2026
-26.47% summed
-0.85% avg / trade
14W / 17L
· 45.20% · 31 trades
month to date
Avg / trade is the typical outcome of one trade that month.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Closed Trade Ledger
[ 724 trades ]
MU
First Pullback
+18.2%
CRDO
First Pullback
+16.8%
GE
Trend Reversal
+7.2%
XOM
Trend Reversal
−5.9%
NUE
First Pullback
+4.8%
CAT
First Pullback
+5.5%
The full per-trade ledger is for members.
You're seeing the complete aggregate record above: win rate, every month, the highs and
the red. The live ledger with entries, exits, and active signals stays inside the membership
so the working signals don't leak. It's the same data, trade by trade.