Track Record
Portfolio alerts cover the ETF model portfolio. Since live tracking began it has closed
56 trades,
62.50% winners,
0.00% per trade. Across all eligible ETF signals:
92 trades,
71.70% winners.
The stock signals use the same rules on the biggest stocks in each sector. They are for research, not a portfolio: 173 closed,
49.10% winners. They are not included in ETF portfolio alerts.
The full record is public, losing months included.
Before going live we tested the same rules on past data over
499 trades
(65.90% winners,
+2.29% per trade).
Those are listed too, and every row says which kind it is.
62.80%
Win rate · every closed trade
95% confidence: 59.4%–66.3%
on 764 trades
Total trades764
Winners480
Losers284
Avg per trade+1.46%
Best trade+47.26%
Worst trade-16.13%
Trend Reversal WR63.00% (n=513)
Pullback WR61.50% (n=244)
Oversold Bounce WR100.00% (n=7, too few to judge)
How we count. Signals marked never filled are excluded. The record includes model portfolio trades and other eligible signals. These are model results, not brokerage returns; actual fills, slippage and fees may differ.
Monthly Performance
(26)
Sep 2024
+18.54% summed
+6.18% avg / trade
2W / 1L
· 66.70% · 3 trades
Oct 2024
-3.85% summed
-3.85% avg / trade
0W / 1L
· 0.00% · 1 trades
Nov 2024
no trades closed
Dec 2024
-1.76% summed
-1.76% avg / trade
0W / 1L
· 0.00% · 1 trades
Jan 2025
no trades closed
Feb 2025
+0.37% summed
+0.04% avg / trade
7W / 3L
· 70.00% · 10 trades
Mar 2025
-12.94% summed
-4.31% avg / trade
1W / 2L
· 33.30% · 3 trades
Apr 2025
-40.81% summed
-5.10% avg / trade
0W / 8L
· 0.00% · 8 trades
May 2025
+236.28% summed
+6.22% avg / trade
34W / 4L
· 89.50% · 38 trades
Jun 2025
+111.77% summed
+2.73% avg / trade
25W / 16L
· 61.00% · 41 trades
Jul 2025
+59.48% summed
+2.83% avg / trade
15W / 6L
· 71.40% · 21 trades
Aug 2025
+35.92% summed
+1.63% avg / trade
16W / 6L
· 72.70% · 22 trades
Sep 2025
+207.80% summed
+4.72% avg / trade
35W / 9L
· 79.50% · 44 trades
Oct 2025
+36.15% summed
+0.79% avg / trade
24W / 22L
· 52.20% · 46 trades
Nov 2025
-25.23% summed
-1.40% avg / trade
6W / 12L
· 33.30% · 18 trades
Dec 2025
+34.47% summed
+1.11% avg / trade
18W / 13L
· 58.10% · 31 trades
Jan 2026
+74.35% summed
+1.30% avg / trade
39W / 18L
· 68.40% · 57 trades
Feb 2026
+132.66% summed
+4.15% avg / trade
28W / 4L
· 87.50% · 32 trades
Mar 2026
-7.25% summed
-0.56% avg / trade
7W / 6L
· 53.80% · 13 trades
Apr 2026
+86.49% summed
+2.06% avg / trade
24W / 18L
· 57.10% · 42 trades
May 2026
+221.23% summed
+2.73% avg / trade
53W / 28L
· 65.40% · 81 trades
Jun 2026
+18.07% summed
+0.42% avg / trade
29W / 14L
· 67.40% · 43 trades
Jul 2026
-38.47% summed
-0.56% avg / trade
45W / 24L
· 65.20% · 69 trades
Aug 2026
+41.48% summed
+0.74% avg / trade
36W / 20L
· 64.30% · 56 trades
Sep 2026
-19.77% summed
-0.37% avg / trade
24W / 30L
· 44.40% · 54 trades
Oct 2026
-53.19% summed
-1.77% avg / trade
12W / 18L
· 40.00% · 30 trades
month to date
Avg / trade is what one trade made or lost that month, on average.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Closed Trades
(764)
MU
First Pullback
+18.2%
CRDO
First Pullback
+16.8%
GE
Trend Reversal
+7.2%
XOM
Trend Reversal
−5.9%
NUE
First Pullback
+4.8%
CAT
First Pullback
+5.5%
The full per-trade ledger is for members.
The full record is above: win rate, every month, the good and the bad. The trade-by-trade list with entries, exits and open positions is for members, so live signals stay private.