Track Record
Every signal the system has traded live, wins and losses alike.
Showing Conservative · ETFs:
80 trades closed,
78.80% winners,
average outcome +0.99% per trade.
The full record is public, losses and red months included.
Before going live we backtested the same rules over
85 trades
(84.70% winners,
+1.76% per trade).
Those are in the ledger too, and every row says which it is.
81.80%
Win rate · every closed trade
95% confidence: 75.9%–87.7%
on 165 trades
Total trades165
Winners135
Losers30
Avg per trade+1.39%
Best trade+17.38%
Worst trade-5.42%
Trend Reversal WR78.20% (n=110)
Pullback WR87.50% (n=48)
Oversold Bounce WR100.00% (n=7, too few to judge)
How the counting works. The numbers above treat every signal the same,
whether or not a portfolio slot was free to take it, which is exactly how the backtest
era was counted. The board we've actually held since going live has closed
41 trades on its own:
68.30% winners,
averaging +0.23% per trade.
Monthly Performance
[ 25 months ]
Click through to the ledger for any month.
What a 10%-per-position portfolio earned across
137 trades, held at most 10 at a time.
37 further signals fired with the portfolio already full and were passed over.
Sep 2024
+18.54% summed
+6.18% avg / trade
2W / 1L
· 66.70% · 3 trades
Oct 2024
-3.85% summed
-3.85% avg / trade
0W / 1L
· 0.00% · 1 trades
Nov 2024
no trades closed
Dec 2024
-1.76% summed
-1.76% avg / trade
0W / 1L
· 0.00% · 1 trades
Jan 2025
no trades closed
Feb 2025
+0.37% summed
+0.04% avg / trade
7W / 3L
· 70.00% · 10 trades
Mar 2025
no trades closed
Apr 2025
-3.61% summed
-3.61% avg / trade
0W / 1L
· 0.00% · 1 trades
May 2025
+32.15% summed
+2.68% avg / trade
11W / 1L
· 91.70% · 12 trades
Jun 2025
+0.63% summed
+0.63% avg / trade
1W / 0L
· 100.00% · 1 trades
Jul 2025
no trades closed
Aug 2025
+2.68% summed
+1.34% avg / trade
2W / 0L
· 100.00% · 2 trades
Sep 2025
+10.75% summed
+1.54% avg / trade
7W / 0L
· 100.00% · 7 trades
Oct 2025
no trades closed
Nov 2025
no trades closed
Dec 2025
+2.75% summed
+1.38% avg / trade
2W / 0L
· 100.00% · 2 trades
Jan 2026
+28.13% summed
+3.13% avg / trade
9W / 0L
· 100.00% · 9 trades
Feb 2026
+23.26% summed
+5.82% avg / trade
4W / 0L
· 100.00% · 4 trades
Mar 2026
no trades closed
Apr 2026
-13.15% summed
-2.63% avg / trade
2W / 3L
· 40.00% · 5 trades
May 2026
+45.10% summed
+1.50% avg / trade
25W / 5L
· 83.30% · 30 trades
Jun 2026
+31.32% summed
+1.84% avg / trade
15W / 2L
· 88.20% · 17 trades
Jul 2026
+25.09% summed
+1.39% avg / trade
17W / 1L
· 94.40% · 18 trades
Aug 2026
+34.43% summed
+1.28% avg / trade
22W / 5L
· 81.50% · 27 trades
Sep 2026
-4.11% summed
-0.27% avg / trade
9W / 6L
· 60.00% · 15 trades
month to date
Avg / trade is the typical outcome of one trade that month.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Closed Trade Ledger
[ 165 trades ]
MU
First Pullback
+18.2%
CRDO
First Pullback
+16.8%
GE
Trend Reversal
+7.2%
XOM
Trend Reversal
−5.9%
NUE
First Pullback
+4.8%
CAT
First Pullback
+5.5%
The full per-trade ledger is for members.
You're seeing the complete aggregate record above: win rate, every month, the highs and
the red. The live ledger with entries, exits, and active signals stays inside the membership
so the working signals don't leak. It's the same data, trade by trade.